The short-term prognosis of the Swedish Energy Agency: Sweden can have large electricity exports in the year 2012

If the year 2012 is a normal year for hydroelectric power and nuclear energy, Sweden may end up exporting around 11.5 TWh of electricity, according to the Swedish Energy Agency's new short-term prognosis. The prognosis also shows that the electricity production of wind power will double and nuclear power can likewise be expected to increase its production.

"The largest net export of electricity up to now was in 1998, when Sweden exported 10.7 terawatt hours. We can hit that next year, and then increase production further in 2012," says Malin Lagerquist of the Swedish Energy Agency.

In the year 2009, Swedish electricity production was the lowest since 2003, primarily due to long shutdowns in the nuclear power industry and relatively low hydroelectric power production. Increases in electricity production of up to 2012 will mean that Sweden will go from importing 4.7 TWh of electricity in the year 2009 to a calculated export level of 11.5 TWh in the year 2012. This quantity corresponds roughly to the heating of 460,000 electrically heated detached houses during the course of a year.

Ah important assumption in the prognosis is that the computations will be based upon these being normal years for hydroelectric power and nuclear power. Production from wind power is expected to double, from 2.5 TWh to 5.5 TWh.

It is expected in the prognosis that energy usage in Sweden will also increase, from 376 TWh to 402 TWh between 2009 and 2012. The largest increase, 16 TWh, is attributable to industry, which is recovering from the recession.

About the short-term prognosis

The short-term prognosis of the Swedish Energy Agency in the autumn of 2010 is a description of the Swedish energy system in the year 2009 as well as an assessment of its development during the period 2010-2012. The Swedish Energy Agency submits two short-term prognoses to the government each year.